Vikings free-agency predictions: What’ll they do with Sam Darnold, Byron Murphy, others?

A busy stretch for the Minnesota Vikings began Thursday when the team signed safety Theo Jackson to an extension. There could be more activity this weekend, leading into Monday’s legal tampering period ahead of free agency.

Minnesota set itself up for a 14-win season last year with its strategy in free agency. Duplicating that success will not be easy, and the Vikings need similarly positive results with their limited number of draft picks.

What’s in store over the coming days and weeks? Here are some predictions:

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— Sam Darnold’s market
— Minnesota’s options
— J.J. McCarthy’s role in it all

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Sam Darnold

Any analysis of the Darnold situation should begin with two questions: How many teams are targeting him as their primary answer at quarterback? And how much money are they willing to give him?

Darnold is a 27-year-old quarterback coming off of a 4,319-yard, 35-touchdown season, by far the best of his career. That usually hints at a major contract in terms of time commitment and dollars, especially in an offseason with few quarterback options. Yet no suitor was willing to trade the Vikings a premium draft pick to acquire him if he had been tagged. And even the teams that might be interested — like the New York Giants — present less-than-optimal circumstances for Darnold. For example, would he want to return to New York after his experience with the Jets? Probably not.

All of this leaves the Vikings in a tricky position. They have maintained belief in J.J. McCarthy both publicly and privately. Bringing Darnold back would rightfully amplify the curiosity about McCarthy’s timeline. One of the primary reasons the Vikings spent so much time and effort on the quarterbacks in last year’s draft was to maximize their rookie quarterback window.

Even if McCarthy were to win an open competition this fall, and the Vikings sought to trade Darnold, who’s to say what his market might be? Some around the league believe Darnold could return, but one NFC executive, whose team has a quarterback, said he felt another team would step up with a more sensible opportunity.

Prediction: Signs elsewhere in free agency 

Byron Murphy Jr.

The Vikings have prioritized keeping Murphy. His inside-out versatility fits perfectly with defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ system, and he just turned 27 years old. The Vikings don’t have any proven cornerbacks behind him. Cost is the question.

In 2023, Trevon Diggs signed an extension with the Dallas Cowboys worth around $19 million in average annual value. L’Jarius Sneed inked a similar deal with the Tennessee Titans last year. In November, Deommodore Lenoir re-upped with the San Francisco 49ers for around $18 million.

Murphy tallied six interceptions last season and might be looking for a similar figure. Whether the Vikings would be willing to go that high is unclear, but Minnesota has an advantage in that Murphy wants to stay in Minnesota. Extend him, and the Vikings will have a pretty clear outlook on the amount of money they can spend next week.

Prediction: Signs extension with Minnesota

Aaron Jones

His numbers aren’t startling, but it’s easy to overlook Jones’ role in the success of 2024. He totaled 1,138 rushing yards and caught 51 passes for 408 yards. Though hips and hamstrings zapped his explosiveness at times, he played in all 17 games. His locker room impact is equally notable.

Minnesota wants to re-sign him for a few reasons. First, last year’s production, including his role as a pass protector, was not lost on the Vikings coaches. Second, the free-agent running back class leaves a lot to be desired. Third, even if the Vikings draft a running back as expected, it would be smart to pair that player with Jones from a workload and tutelage perspective.

Jones will have suitors on the open market, and he might be looking for a contract that comes close to last year’s that paid him around $7 million. The Vikings probably don’t want to climb that high.

But Jones will also be mindful of the positives that’d come with staying in Minnesota — most notably, he’d play in a system with receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who lighten the box. Defenses fear Minnesota’s passing game, and as long as the Vikings improve their front the way they have talked about doing, they should offer Jones a chance for another productive season.

Prediction: Signs extension with Minnesota

Camryn Bynum

First, how about a nod to Bynum’s arc? Former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman drafted the Cal product in the fourth round in 2021. Bynum moved from cornerback to safety, maintained the starting job even after Minnesota selected Lewis Cine in the first round and became a fan favorite.

The Vikings wanted him back. They tried to work out an extension with Bynum’s representatives before the start of the 2024 season, but they couldn’t agree on a number, so Bynum played out the year. Re-signing with Minnesota has seemed like a long shot given Bynum’s asking price, and the Vikings extending Jackson on Thursday added another layer to the complexity.

Still, if veteran safety Harrison Smith were to retire, Bynum could come back into play. Otherwise, Minnesota will likely be satisfied with Smith, Jackson and Josh Metellus.

Prediction: Signs elsewhere in free agency

Interior offensive linemen

Flash back to Kevin O’Connell’s news conference after the playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams. “There could be a 1,000 excuses made,” he said, “but for me, it’s the foundation of the interior of the pocket that we’re going to have to take a long look at.” Watching the Philadelphia Eagles pummel the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl only cemented the trenches as an offseason focal point for the Vikings.

The Vikings kicked around the idea of Chiefs right guard Trey Smith, but Kansas City took him off the market with a franchise tag. Will Fries of the Indianapolis Colts might be the next best option, but there will be plenty of competition to get him. If Minnesota can secure him, it’ll have fortified one primary target. And even if that’s the only way the Vikings improve the offensive line in free agency, drafting a versatile player remains another avenue for growth.

Prediction: Minnesota signs at least one free-agent guard to a sizable contract

Interior defensive linemen

The Vikings like the trajectory of defensive tackles Jalen Redmond and Levi Drake Rodriguez. Still, they’d prefer to add some juice to the interior that Flores has not had in his two seasons in Minnesota.

There are plenty of options, but the most intriguing is Eagles defensive tackle Milton Williams. He is young. He can rush the passer. He’s a winner. Others may cost less, but they’re also not as potent. Javon Hargrave, for example, is 32 years old and coming off of a torn triceps. Even Jonathan Allen, 30, could be in play depending on what he’s seeking monetarily. Other recent cuts (or potential ones) could become candidates, allowing for the Vikings to still recoup a compensatory pick in 2026.

Prediction: Minnesota signs at least one free-agent interior defender to a sizable contract

Others

This section hinges on what happens above. If Murphy were to depart, the Vikings would likely explore the market for a nickel corner. Nate Hobbs of the Las Vegas Raiders, 25, could be an option. And even if the Vikings re-sign Murphy, adding a more mobile No. 2 corner is a possible path.

Expect the Vikings to also be in the market for a new punt returner in the mold of a free agent like Greg Dortch. They may not want to spend on a punter to replace Ryan Wright, but if the price is right, that may be an option.

Prediction: Minnesota signs another cornerback and a punt returner, at minimum

(Photo of Byron Murphy Jr.: Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images)