The Minnesota Vikings are neither entering the playoffs as a heavy favorite or underdog. Oddsmakers give them the sixth best chance of the 14 playoff teams to win the Super Bowl, behind the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills and Eagles.
Minnesota’s path could end up being quite difficult as there is a high chance that they will either end up back at Ford Field against the Lions or flying to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles on the road.
But if we put aside the likely road element and ignore the permutations and possibilities of the opponents along the way and only focus on what the Vikings put on paper during the 2024 regular season, how would we weigh their chances to reach the Super Bowl?
One way is to look at previous teams that reached The Big Game and see if the Vikings pass the smell test in comparison to the clubs that went all the way to the NFL’s final contest in February.
So let’s have a look at how the Vikings stack up to the last 20 teams to reach the Super Bowl in a number of key statistical categories and what that says about their odds…
ALL STATS VIA PRO-FOOTBALL REFERENCE
Win percentage: .824
Rank vs. last 20 Super Bowl teams: 4th
Rank in 2024 NFL: 3rd
It’s hard to find a better predictor for playoff success than winning in the regular season. The Vikings .824 win percentage over the last 17 weeks puts them in some good company among teams that reached the Super Bowl, including both franchises that got there in 2022. Other recent 3-loss teams to make the SB were: 2019 49ers, 2018 Rams, 2017 Patriots, 2017 Eagles.
Thirteen of the 20 Super Bowl teams won 75% of their games and only five that got there won less than 70%. Only the 2021 Bengals had fewer than 11 wins.
Points For
Rank vs. last 20 Super Bowl teams: 18th
Rank in 2024: 9th
With 432 points, they are only ahead of 2014 Seattle, 2023 Kansas City and 2015 Denver in terms of offensive output. The Vikings were only four points behind 2018 New England and one good game in Week 18 from coming close to the Los Angeles Rams’ 460 points in 2021 (11th best among SB-appearing teams).
Maybe it’s a coincidence but out of the top 10 point-scoring teams to reach the Super Bowl, seven of them lost.
The takeaway here is pretty clear: If the Vikings are going to get there, Brian Flores’s defense is going to have to pull its weight because they are about 30 points off from the mid-pack Super Bowl teams and 100 points away from the best of the last decade.
Points Against
Rank vs. last 20 Super Bowl teams: 13th
Rank in 2024: 5th
This one is a little skewed by the 17th game because prior to the Vikings’ loss to Detroit they had only given up 301 points, which would have put them on par with teams like the 2015 Panthers, 2017 Patriots and (surprisingly) 2015 Broncos. But giving up 31 is a relevant data point and it sinks the Vikings down into the mid-pack for points allowed among teams that made the SB. The most comparable teams are the 2022 Eagles and 2018 Patriots.
It’s clear that the Vikings defense has flaws. They aren’t as strong as the 2014 Seahawks, who gave up 254 points and ranked in the top three in rushing and passing yards against. But they do pass the test as meeting the standard of a defense good enough to drive postseason success like the 2019 49ers, who gave up 310 regular season points and shut down the Vikings and Packers in the postseason.
Point Differential
Rank vs. last 20 Super Bowl teams: 17th
Rank in 2024: 8th
Generally speaking, a +100 differential has been the bar to reach in order to be considered a real contender. The Vikings hit exactly that bar rather than leaping over it because of a Week 18 meltdown. Before they faced the Lions, the Vikings were at +122, which would have placed them in the same ballpark as the 2022 Chiefs, 2022 Eagles and 2016 Falcons. Instead, they are only ahead of four teams that made the Super Bowl since 2014.
The most comparable team so happens to be the 2021 Rams, Kevin O’Connell’s former team (+88).
There’s no bones about it: With the fifth best point differential in the NFC, the Vikings do not have quite as strong of a case as 14-win teams of the past. Their Expected W-L (per Pro-Football Ref) based on point differential puts them more in the range of an 11-win team. That’s still good enough to make it but less likely than teams like the Lions who outscored opponents by 222.
Passer Rating
Rank vs. last 20 Super Bowl teams: 10th
Rank in 2024: 6th
Nothing is going to drive a team to the Super Bowl better than great quarterback play. In terms of team passer rating, Sam Darnold was good enough to put the Vikings right in the middle of the Super Bowl clubs. The most comparable, again, are the 2021 Rams, along with the 2018 Rams and 2019 San Francisco 49ers.
Those teams were quarterbacked by Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo. Not a far cry from Darnold.
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
Rank vs. last 20 Super Bowl teams: 16th
Rank in 2024: 8th
Notable about this stat: If it was unadjusted yards per attempt, the Vikings would be third only behind 2023 San Fran and 2016 Atlanta but there is a price to pay when throwing the ball downfield in the form of sacks an interceptions. So when yards per attempt is adjusted for miscues, the Vikings’ passing game looks less efficient than the teams that reached the pinnacle of the sport.
At 8.2%, the 2021 Bengals and 2014 Seahawks were the only teams that had higher sack percentages than the Vikings and made the Super Bowl. The Vikings offensive line holding up will be a major factor in whether they go deep in the playoffs or fall short.
Rushing Yards
Rank vs. last 20 Super Bowl teams: 13th
Rank in 2024: 20th
You might have expected the Vikings to have been much lower on this list but their running game this season finished closer to mid-pack than the bottom of the league with 1,855 yards at 4.1 yards per carry. Those numbers are comparable to 2020 Kansas City, 2016 Patriots and 2021 Bengals and way ahead of some teams that got to the Super Bowl without any running game at all like the 2020 Bucs or 2019 Chiefs.
The thing those teams have in common is: Great quarterbacks.
The teams that made the Super Bowl without legendary QBs like the 49ers in 2019 or 2023 and the Eagles in 2022 had prolific running games. You’ll never guess the team that didn’t have a lock future HOF QB or a good running game and made it: The 2021 Rams.
2nd in turnovers forced
Rank vs. last 20 Super Bowl teams: 2nd
Rank in 2024: 1st
This team’s ability to take the football away is truly special. Among the 20 Super Bowl representatives since 2014, only the 2015 Carolina Panthers created more takeaways than the Vikings 33 this year. Oftentimes we look at turnovers as something that can be volatile but 18 of the 20 SB teams had at least 20 turnovers forced.
It will be an interesting battle in the Wild Card game for the Vikings against the Rams in this regard because Los Angeles has only given the ball away 14 times (4th best).
Opposing QB rating
Rank vs. last 20 Super Bowl teams: 8th
Rank in 2024: 2nd
Opposing QBs against the Vikings this year averaged 242 yards passing per game but that’s because they were so often playing from behind. When it came to the efficiency of opposing quarterbacks, the Vikings defense made life extremely difficult. They allowed just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, which was second best, and when adjusted for sacks and interceptions that dropped to 5.1 per attempt (also 2nd).
The most comparable numbers to the Vikings in QB rating are the 2023 49ers and 2014 Seahawks. The 2015 Denver team that dominated its way to the Super Bowl gave up a 78.8 rating in the regular season, the Vikings this year allowed 82.4. It’s a pass defense that is capable of being a true difference maker in the postseason.
Opposing rush yards
Rank vs. last 20 Super Bowl teams: 8th
Rank in 2024: 2nd
Being a good defense against the run isn’t a prerequisite to going deep into the playoffs but the defense-first teams that got there like the 2015 Broncos and 2014 Seahawks were absolutely dominant against the opposing ground game. The Vikings aren’t quite at their level — the ‘15 Broncos gave up 3.3 yards per carry — but they are elite.
Are they good enough to stop the Rams/Lions/Eagles run games though? This could be a year where run defense plays a bigger role in the playoffs than we would expect.
Sacks
Rank vs. last 20 Super Bowl teams: 6th
Rank in 2024: 4th
Always and forever, pressuring the opposing quarterback can be a great equalizer in the playoffs. The Vikings have a serious edge in this area as they had just three fewer sacks than the great 2015 Broncos pass rush this year.
But they will be facing a QB in Stafford who was only sacked 28 times and was the 5th least pressured QB by percentage of drop-backs this year (per PFF).
In comparison to the teams that reached the Super Bowl, the Minnesota Vikings are not out of their depth in some of the key areas, particularly passing success, ability to take the football away and the ability to get after the quarterback.
On the defensive side, they have a profile that compares favorably to teams whose defense drove them to the the NFL’s finale.
Offensively, the Vikings will need to be the best version of themselves in order to make it deep. They might be able to survive some of the inconsistency that plagued them at times against teams like Arizona and Seattle but can’t have any games that resemble Detroit.
There is a volatility that shows up on paper in comparison to Super Bowl teams that could play in the Vikings favor or work against them. Averaging more yards per pass attempt than most of the teams to reach the Super Bowl is promising but having sacks and interceptions bring down their Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt tells the story of the highs and lows.
The same goes for the defense. If the Vikings can continue to win the turnover battle, sack the opposing QBs and shut down the run, they have a chance against anyone. If the big plays dry up, then a deep run is unlikely.
It’s worth saying that the Vikings putting together a team that aligns in the win-loss category, largely offensively and definitely defensively with the best of the best in the last decade says a lot about their coaching and construction. They couldn’t have asked for any better from O’Connell, Flores and the front office in 2024, no matter how the playoffs end up playing out.