2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 18: Lions, Vikings battle for NFC’s top seed
For a few teams, this is the week that means everything.
In the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions are playing the ultimate Game 272 at Ford Field. The winner will have home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The loser? A fifth seed going on the road next weekend and beyond.
Elsewhere, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are trying to win the NFC South, needing a victory over the New Orleans Saints. And in the AFC, the Denver Broncos must beat the Kansas City Chiefs to take the seventh and final seed. Finally, the Baltimore Ravens have a shot to win the AFC North for the second straight year, only needing to avoid a massive upset against the Cleveland Browns.
Below is everything you need to know about the ramifications of Week 18.
Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.
Record: 15–1, first place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 100%
The Chiefs are locked into the No. 1 seed and are resting starters against the Broncos, who must win Sunday afternoon to clinch a playoff spot.
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
Buffalo is locked into the second seed and will likely rest many stars Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium against the New England Patriots.
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
With a win Saturday afternoon over the Browns, Baltimore would clinch the third seed and be at home in the wild-card round.
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
The Texans are locked into the fourth seed. However, they might play most of their starters against the Tennessee Titans after being blown out on Christmas by the Ravens.
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
Pittsburgh has a few scenarios going into its home game Saturday night against the Cincinnati Bengals. If the Ravens beat Cleveland, the Steelers are only playing for seeding between the No. 5 and No. 6 spots. However, if Baltimore loses, the Steelers would be the No. 3 seed with a victory.
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
If the Steelers lose Saturday, the Chargers can move into the No. 5 seed and earn a date with the Texans, should Los Angeles beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday afternoon.
No. 7: Denver Broncos
Record: 9–7, third place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 72%
For the Broncos, the situation is simple. If they can beat the Chiefs’ backups, they’ll be the No. 7 seed. If Denver loses, it’s out of the playoff picture unless both the Bengals and Miami Dolphins falter.
IN THE HUNT
Miami Dolphins (8–8): Miami can still make the playoffs, but it needs Tyler Huntley to lead the Dolphins to a win over the New York Jets, and then hope for Denver to lose at home against Kansas City.
Cincinnati Bengals (8–8): Cincinnati needs to beat the Steelers on Saturday, and then hope for the Dolphins and Broncos to lose their respective games.
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 100%
Detroit and Minnesota are going to lock in for an epic struggle on Sunday Night Football at Ford Field. The winner will be 15–2 and own home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The loser is the first 14-win team to not win its division, and thus a wild-card team.
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
The Eagles have nothing to play for against the New York Giants. Philadelphia won the NFC East and is locked in as the second seed.
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 100%
Los Angeles has assured itself of the NFC West title, but could slide to the No. 4 seed if it loses to the Seattle Seahawks and the Buccaneers beat the Saints.
No. 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 87%
If the Buccaneers can beat the Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon, they will win the NFC South once more and host a game on wild-card weekend. Additionally, should Tampa Bay win and the Rams lose, it’ll be the No. 3 seed.
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 100%
If the Vikings beat the Lions on the road, they’ll earn a season split with Detroit and, much more importantly, be the No. 1 seed in the NFC for the first time since 1998.
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
Washington can clinch the sixth seed by beating the CeeDee Lamb-less Dallas Cowboys. If the Commanders lose and the Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears, Washington will then play in Philadelphia next weekend.
Remaining opponents over .500: 0
Playoff probability: 100%
The Packers can move up to the No. 6 seed if they beat the Bears on Sunday, and get a loss from the Commanders against the Cowboys.
IN THE HUNT
Atlanta Falcons (8–8): The Falcons need to beat the Panthers on Sunday in the early window, and simultaneously hope the Buccaneers lose to the Saints.