MINNEAPOLIS — The Cardinals had a chance to beat a Super Bowl contender on the road. They had a chance to send the Vikings to a soul-searching loss. They had a chance to maintain pace atop the NFC West.
It’s not so much that they didn’t have the chance. It’s that they didn’t try.
Three minutes, 20 seconds remained when Jonathan Gannon sent his field goal unit out to take three points, building the Cardinals’ cushion to 22-16. But in that moment, he could have secured the game.
The Cardinals were facing fourth and goal from the Minnesota 4-yard line. With a touchdown, they would have effectively sealed the win. Even with a failure, the Vikings would have needed to drive the length of the field with just one timeout.
On the sideline, Gannon contemplated the decision, he admitted. At the end of it, he decided to kick. “So be it,” he said in his news conference after the Cardinals’ 23-22 loss.
By giving the ball back to the Vikings, Gannon trusted a defense that had shined for much of the day. But they had allowed points on their previous two possessions and did so again with the game on the line.
Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold drove his team 70 yards in eight plays. The Cardinals couldn’t build a response in the 1:13 that remained and that was ballgame.
“This one hurts for sure,” Marvin Harrison Jr. said later.
Hunched in front of his locker, Harrison spoke every word in an attempt to come to terms with the defeat. “On the road against a really good team,” Harrison said. “Really, really good team. And we had them on the ropes there. Went up six on the last drive. We just couldn’t get it done.”
It didn’t have to be this way, given how much of the game unfolded.
There are several explanations for the Cardinals’ collapse. They committed too many penalties. Their offense was wasteful. Their defense faltered late. But none stand out so much as their conservative decision-making in crucial moments.
According to ESPN analytics, the Cardinals made three fourth-down decisions that decreased their chances of winning. Early in the first quarter, they punted on fourth and 2 from their 44-yard line. Later in the first, they kicked a field goal on fourth and 2 from the Vikings 13-yard line.
And, at the end, they kicked the field goal that kept Minnesota’s hopes alive. Per ESPN, that last decision dropped their win probability from 88.1% to 80.1%.
That list doesn’t even include the Cardinals’ decision to kick an extra point after their lone touchdown. Up 18-6 in the third quarter, a two-point conversion would have given them a 14-point buffer. By settling for a 13-point margin, they left the door open for the Vikings to take the lead with two touchdowns — which, as it turns out, is exactly what they did.
Unlike the late field goal, Gannon said “there was no thought” of going for two in that situation. “I liked where the game was at that point,” he said.
Gannon said that he is the only person making those decisions and that “a lot” goes into it. He did not elaborate on what that meant, but added “It’s not purely analytics.”
If it were, the Cardinals would likely have brought out their offense four more times on Sunday afternoon. Gannon’s conservative decision-making, though, has been a season-long trend.
Prior to Sunday, the Cardinals had faced 16 fourth downs this season of 3 yards or fewer. They went for it on just seven of those plays (43.7%), the 10th-lowest rate in the league.
They’ve been even less aggressive in potential punting situations. Eight of those short-yardage fourth downs have been in their territory. They’ve punted all eight times. Only five other teams have not tried to go for it in those instances. Three times, Arizona punted on fourth-and-one past the 30-yard line.
Those are the types of decisions for which analytics models have scorned the Cardinals all season. On Sunday, the Cardinals finally paid the price.
But even with four questionable decisions, it was the late field goal that stung most.
“I trust JG,” Kyler Murray said. “I see both sides. Go up six, make them score, trust the defense, go get a stop.” Then Murray walked through the counter-argument.
“Go for it, you don’t get it, they’ve still gotta go down and score,” Murray said. “If we do get it, probably put the game away. Obviously, if we do run a play, I’m confident in us.”
Every one of those points will be playing in the minds of Cardinals fans for the next seven days.
There’s another point, too — one that Murray didn’t mention. If the Cardinals had gone for the touchdown and failed, the Vikings would have had less incentive to be aggressive. Facing fourth-and-five from the Cardinals’ 33-yard-line, Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell would likely have called for kicker John Parker Romo, who had already missed from 43 yards. If he made the kick, the game would have still been tied. If he missed, the Cardinals would have won.
Instead, Gannon explained that he “wanted to make them score a touchdown to beat us there.”
The Vikings obliged.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Cardinals’ decision to play it safe cost them in loss to Vikings