Week 1 NFL Odds
The Week 1 NFL lines have been up ever since the matchups for the start of the season were released. So, these have had a long time to sit there and marinate. But, even with some of the spring and summer movements, we’re still going to see the odds screen light up throughout the course of the week.
As betting limits increase, so do the positions of influential bettors. Obviously we had some injuries and other developments during the preseason that caused a little bit of a stir in the wagering world, but all of those things are baked into the numbers now. Getting some big, huge edge in Week 1 isn’t going to happen, but it is nice to see the teams actually get out there and play. A note for this article moving forward is that I typically don’t mention every game, just the ones with line moves, bigger storylines, or injuries.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 1 NFL Odds Report:
Cowboys vs. Eagles (-7.5, 47.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)
Well, this one took on a much different look with the trade of Micah Parsons to Green Bay. But, the line did only move about a half-point or didn’t move at all with a little bit of increased vig on the favored Eagles. Sportsbooks are going to have an extreme amount of Eagles -1.5 teaser money if they continue to hold at 7.5. I’ll be curious to see who goes to 8 first because there won’t be betting volume on Dallas with so much negative press.
Cowboys-Eagles Matchup
Chiefs (-3, 45.5) vs. Chargers (Brazil)
Friday, 8 p.m. ET (YouTube)
Neutral-site international games have a lot of layers to them. Generally speaking, this game has a lot of layers to it, as many people here at VSiN and pundits and prognosticators in other places feel like this is the year that the Chiefs take a step back. Most think that it will be the Broncos who are best-positioned to take advantage, but it could be the Chargers. The market hasn’t budged much on this game, but it is a standalone Friday night game and that is going to lead to a massive betting handle. Public money probably won’t fade Patrick Mahomes. Will sharp money balance things out or could we see a 3.5 pop?
Chiefs-Chargers Matchup
Steelers (-3, 38.5) vs. Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields face off against their former teams. But, it would appear that the defenses are likely to be the story here based on that total, which is the lowest on the board for Week 1 and has been bet down since the line opened in the summer. With a couple sportsbooks at 2.5, this could be a good teaser candidate, crossing through the key numbers of 3 and 7 with the Jets in a game with a low-scoring expectation. It does feel like the more we’ve heard throughout the lead-up to the season, the more Pittsburgh’s ceiling is being raised. I don’t think you’ll see a lot of people willing to bet the Jets. If you do, they’re sharper bettors in nature.
Steelers-Jets Matchup
Dolphins vs. Colts (-1, 47)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The preseason was a circus for the Colts, as they decided to bench Anthony Richardson in favor of Daniel Jones, who is only signed for this season. The Dolphins also looked rather poor in the preseason, so bettors have lined up against them in a variety of ways heading into the campaign. Those are a couple of the reasons why we see the Colts favored here. I do think that they will stay favored and wouldn’t be surprised to see -2 or -2.5 as the prevailing spread later in the week.
Dolphins-Colts Matchup
Bengals (-5.5, 47.5) vs. Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Battle of Ohio has seen a little bit of interest in the Cleveland side. A poor showing on defense and some shoddy blocking from the offensive line had people thinking differently about the Bengals very early in the exhibition part of the season. The Browns are going with Joe Flacco at QB, which I think also provided some tentative bettors with a little peace of mind for the season opener.
Bengals-Browns Matchup
Raiders vs. Patriots (-2.5, 42.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This line danced around a little bit over the summer. DraftKings released the Patriots at -3.5 and Circa at -3, with some moves on the vig before just taking the plunge to go off of the key number. The Raiders at least look like a competent operation now with Geno Smith and Pete Carroll, while the Patriots may still be pretty limited on offense. With nearly all of the market at 2.5 and some extra juice, I’ll be interested to see how bettors approach this game. My read is that any move back to 3 will draw Raiders money.
Raiders-Patriots Matchup
Cardinals (-6.5, 42.5) vs. Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
An early kick for the desert dwellers here, but obviously the Saints are low in everybody’s rankings, sitting either 31st or 32nd. This is the biggest road favorite role for Arizona since 2021, so they’re in some pretty new waters, but it makes a ton of sense given the opponent. Nobody wants to bet on the Saints, but I do wonder if that statement changes if (when?) we get to +7 on them here.
Cardinals-Saints Matchup
Lions vs. Packers (-2.5, 47)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Parsons trade certainly sent a ripple through the NFL world, but not much happened with this line. The books that were at -2 went to -2.5 and most of them probably just pulled a copycat move, not a move based on action at the shop. Nobody is really threatening to go to -3 as of Monday night, but we’ll have to see if that changes as limits increase and more money-movers get involved. Even though the total is a little elevated here, teasers with the Lions up to +8.5 will be popular. Another popular teaser leg will be Denver to -1.5 or -2 against the Titans.
Lions-Packers Matchup
Texans vs. Rams (-2.5, 43.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
This line was kind of in limbo for a while because we kept hearing disappointing things about Matthew Stafford throughout the preseason. It seems as though he’s okay, and so here we are with the Rams a favorite, but not by much if you consider home-field advantage in the NFL as a point or two. The more interesting thing to me here is the move towards the Under, as it seems like a lot of bettors are expecting to see a steady diet of Kyren Williams.
Texans-Rams Matchup
Ravens vs. Bills (-1, 51.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
For all of the love that the Bills got over the offseason, including a lot of interest for the No. 1 seed in the AFC thanks to their schedule, here they are as a slight underdog on a neutral field to the Ravens. They are favored by virtue of playing at home and that’s about it. Is that the right position to take here? Two great QBs to say the least. Is one defense better than the other? Is that why the Bills are such small favorites? Great game. Maybe not a great betting game.
Ravens-Bills Matchup
Vikings (-1.5, 43.5) vs. Bears
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
I think this is the most interesting line of the week. We know very little about J.J. McCarthy at this point, as he missed all of last season and didn’t really get a lot of action in the preseason. The Bears actually hummed a bit with their first-team offense in the preseason, though they do enter the year with some defensive concerns. I don’t have the data in front of me, but I’d wonder how road favorite first-time starters do in those games. It would be a small, non-predictive sample size, but it would be fun to know. The Bears also look like a pretty good teaser selection here with the total trending towards the low 40s.
Vikings-Bears Matchup
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