The real standings in 2025 almost certainly will be more spread out than the analytics projections, as things like injuries and small-sample variance change teams’ fortunes for the better or worse.
But that doesn’t explain why the Vikings’ projected win totals in those cases are still relatively mediocre (14th out of 32 teams in ESPN’s FPI, for instance).
For that, we have other explanations.
The most obvious one is quarterback uncertainty. At this time last year, the Vikings’ betting over-under for the 2024 season was 7.5 wins. A lot of that was QB uncertainty, and then Sam Darnold delivered an out-of-nowhere Pro Bowl season. Now he’s gone and second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy, coming off a season-ending injury and without a snap of regular-season NFL experience, is projected to be the starter. As NFL.com notes: “The Vikings’ season largely hinges” on McCarthy’s play.
We also must remember that the Vikings went 9-1 in one-score games last season. Even if you believe coach Kevin O’Connell has a knack for leading his team to close wins, that number will be hard to duplicate.
And the Vikings play in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Even the Bears project to be better this season. NFL.com even has Chicago at 8.9 wins, meaning the Vikings have the lowest projected total of the four teams in the NFC North. The Vikings have six division games, and going 4-2 (as they did last year by sweeping the Packers and Bears while being swept by the Lions) in those games will not be easy.