The Johansson Deal Shows That New Freedoms Won’t Break Guerin’s Old Habits – Minnesota Wild

Limitations and restrictions breed creativity. The Minnesota Wild have dealt with them during the crushing burden of the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter buyouts. If there’s something Bill Guerin has excelled at during that time, it’s finding ways to squeeze value out of zero cap space. Retaining Ryan Hartman on a pay cut in 2021, acquiring Jake Middleton for nothing from the San Jose Sharks, and plucking Freddy Gaudreau from obscurity are prime examples.

Once Guerin finds these bargains, he’s been loath to let them go. Hartman is in the second year of a 3-year, $4 million AAV contract. Middleton is entering his second contract with the team, with Minnesota on the hook for four years and $4.35M AAV. Gaudreau is in the third year of a five-year, $2.1M AAV deal. 

These deals seemed like a general manager stretching out as many pennies as possible to make an awful salary cap situation work. With the buyout handcuffs off, would we see a new, aggressive Guerin?

It’s only June 2, but Minnesota retaining Marcus Johansson ahead of free agency appears to somewhat answer our question. The one-year, $800K contract doesn’t preclude the Wild from taking a big swing this summer, far from it. However, it indicates that stability is still king in St. Paul, and Guerin’s commitment to keeping his guys around was about more than his financial limitations.

There’s not much to say about the contract itself. It’s just $25K above the league-minimum salary, and Johansson is more-or-less a replacement-level player. Over his past two seasons (on a similarly-bargain 2-year, $2M AAV contract), Johansson has been a solid defensive player, though one that was a non-factor offensively. He delivered 1.0 Standings Points Above Replacement in 150 games over the life of the deal, per Evolving-Hockey.

Is it a “good” contract? Sure, probably. But the value they’re getting on the contract is immaterial at this point. Much like the Gustav Nyquist trade deadline acquisition, the price is less important than the lack of creativity and urgency to improve the team. Assuming the Wild’s top line has Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Matt Boldy on it, Minnesota’s middle-six forwards are littered with 30-plus-year-olds who’ve been around the team for years with zero postseason success.

Behold, Minnesota will start next season with:

Marcus Foligno, 34, six playoff series in Minnesota
Mats Zuccarello, 38, five playoff series in Minnesota
Ryan Hartman, 31, five playoff series in Minnesota
Marcus Johansson, 35, three playoff series in Minnesota
Freddy Gaudreau, 32, three playoff series in Minnesota

Throw in Yakov Trenin, a 28-year-old grinder with 15 points last season, and that’s six of nine spots held by veteran players who will almost certainly have an everyday role in 2025-26. 

Do the math here. That’s nine forward spots of 12 that are gone. If the Wild keep Marco Rossi, take off another spot. Suppose Guerin fulfills his wish list and gets “centers” and “a scoring winger,” that’s all 12 forward spots filled.

This is all happening as the Wild’s two first-round picks from the 2022 Draft are knocking on the door. Liam Öhgren scored 19 goals and 37 points in 41 games for a not-very-good Iowa Wild team. Danila Yurov is about to make his much-anticipated NHL debut and has an out clause to join the KHL if he can’t find a place in the lineup. That gets much harder if, say, Johansson draws in for 70 games on the third line.

And for what upside? At the trade deadline in 2023, Johansson caught lightning in a bottle when he scored six goals and 18 points in 20 games alongside Boldy and Eriksson Ek. Since then, Johansson has had two 11-goal campaigns, averaging 32 points. At 35, that lightning isn’t coming back. Still, Johansson is despite two underwhelming seasons.

In fairness, teams need depth, and the Wild would always need to sign some cheap veterans to take-a-flier deals. But instead of using it as an opportunity to find a decent, devalued asset who might offer something new — again, something Guerin’s front office has proven that they can do well — they’re recycling the same old thing. 

Stability isn’t a terrible thing in and of itself. Stagnation is, though. Minnesota already had a locker room full of Guerin-type veterans and limited spots to give to their young players. What’s the obsession with running back the over-30 core of a team that, time and again, has shown they can’t get it done in the postseason?

Next month, Guerin will have an opportunity to blow us away with his creativity, and some great moves will put this minor signing on the back burner. But this contract hints that even with the Wild’s newfound financial freedom, they’re perhaps still stuck in their old, cap-strapped mindset. 

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