The Crystal Ball Says… – Daily Norseman

In my inaugural article for the DN, I discussed reasons for optimism in 2025. The first was key free agency additions, particularly in the trenches. This builds on the greatest free agent class the team has ever had in 2024. The second was an unwavering faith that J.J. McCarthy is the real deal. Our Montana. Our Brady. Our Mahomes. Our Aaron Rodg…yeah, no. Sorry, no one with a measly Super Bowl victory allowed, pal. If that were the case, I’d go with Brad Johnson. He not only has a championship ring, but was the 1st player in NFL history to complete a touchdown pass to himself. Well, if you don’t count Mr. Perfect (Steve Jordan sighting!). So, by any objective measure, Brad Johnson > that former Packers QB. But I digress.

The final reason is the history of coaches in their 4th year; it’s the sweet spot for a successful season. The cumulative record of current head coaches in their 4th campaign is impressive (99-47). Given the circumstances above, I see no reason Kevin O’Connell isn’t poised to add favorably to this trend.

A cursory glimpse at our 2025 opponents without knowing the schedule landed me at 11-6 for the year.

The following reasoning guided that prediction:

1. Chicago takes a step forward under Ben Johnson.
2. Detroit takes a step back without Ben Johnson (and Aaron Glenn).
3. Green Bay stays about the same.
4. The remaining NFC slate is top-heavy but manageable.
5. The AFC opponents will be as challenging as they look on paper.

Our slate is tied for the 5th toughest in 2025, with a combined opponents’ winning percentage of .557 last year. Take that for what you will. I did bake it into the equation, as I couldn’t convince myself that swapping the AFC North for the putrid AFC South, and the NFC East for the NFC West, would result in an easier ride. I tried, believe me. Fantasy comes easy for Vikings fans.

Quick thoughts:

1. I have no issues with overseas contests if they’re away games. Sure, the travelling sucks, but the other team must deal with that too. More importantly, the opponents’ home-field advantage is neutralized.
2. I’m lovin’ that 3 of the 5 AFC games will occur by Week 5. Every game is important, but those do mean less in terms of tiebreakers in what will be a highly competitive NFC playoff picture. This will afford us time to iron out some kinks, especially on defense, before we get to the heart of the divisional/NFC lineup.
3. We’d better get it together early on, because the middle of the schedule is brutal. Weeks 7-12 will see us play teams with a combined record of 68-34(!) in 2024. If you remove the Chicago Bears, whom I expect to be improved and in the Wild Card mix, the record was 63-22(!!).
4. Due to pre-determined schedule formula quirks, we benefit tremendously from having many of our toughest games at U.S. Bank Stadium. This is huge, as the Lions do not, and must travel to Baltimore, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Washington, and Philadelphia. Oof. Bite the kneecap off that, Dan Campbell.

So, let’s see if my 11-6 prediction still stands after a more thorough examination of the 2025 Minnesota Vikings schedule.

The Crystal Ball Says

Week 1 – @Chicago Bears (MNF): Ben Johnson will pull every damn rabbit he has out of a hat for his debut before a raucous MNF crowd. Hide the football plays, flea flickers, running back passes, fake punts, fake field goals, Philly Specials, you name it. I’m on record as saying our secondary will need some time to gel, and going against DJ Moore and Rome Odunze is not ideal out of the gate. J.J. McCarthy gives us the lead late, but Caleb Williams makes a huge play to set up a field goal with no time to answer.

Chicago Bears: 23

Minnesota Vikings: 21

(0-1 Overall) (0-1 Division) (0-1 NFC)

Week 2 – Atlanta Falcons: A short week is just what the doctor ordered. This will serve as the official J.J. McCarthy coming-out party, at home, in front of the best fans in the NFL. The J.J.-to-J.J. Era has officially arrived. Flores’ defense contains Penix and forces multiple turnovers. All is right with the world.

Minnesota Vikings: 34

Atlanta Falcons:14

(1-1 Overall) (0-1 Division) (1-1 NFC)

Week 3 – Cincinnati Bengals: Containing Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins proves a tall order. Burrow does Burrow things early and often to our secondary. Fortunately, the Bengals must play defense, too (but can’t). KOC has the offense ready to answer the challenge. The Vikings’ 2nd half defense slows Burrow down just enough for the Vikings to prevail in a shootout. This one feels good.

Minnesota Vikings: 38

Cincinnati Bengals: 34

(2-1 overall) (0-1 Division) (1-1 NFC) (1-0 AFC)

Week 4: @Pittsburgh Steelers (Dublin): Even if You Know Who is the Steelers’ QB for this one, I see it playing out like the Jets game last year in London, given the circumstances – i.e., a slogging, slow-paced affair. The Vikings manage some big plays on offense in the 2nd half, and the D starts to settle in after an inconsistent start. Oh, please (!!!) give me another European Van Ginkel pick 6 against Rodgers.

Minnesota Vikings: 24

Pittsburgh Steelers: 20 (No Rodgers: 10)

(3-1 overall) (0-1 Division) (1-1 NFC) (2-0 AFC)

Week 5: @Cleveland Browns (London): I see Costco is now selling the enormous Plinko board from The Price is Right. This will come in handy for Kevin Stefanski to decide which of his 12 QBs will start each week. Regardless of where the giant chip lands, we win this one.

Minnesota Vikings: 28

Cleveland Browns: 10

(4-1 overall) (0-1 Division) (1-1 NFC) (3-0 AFC)

Week 6: BYE: Fortunately, we haven’t had to sweat this one out since 2011.

Week 7: Philadelphia Eagles: Huge step up in class after the bye. The Eagles lost some starters and key depth pieces in free agency, so a slight regression wouldn’t be surprising. If this were in Philly, I’d say nah, but I’m oddly confident here. Both teams will be well-rested. It will be a dogfight, but we come out on top thanks to late-game heroics from the biggest sex symbol since early-90s Brad Pitt: Will Reichard. FG late wins it for the good guys.

Minnesota Vikings: 27

Philadelphia Eagles: 26

(5-1 overall) (0-1 Division) (2-1 NFC) (3-0 AFC)

Week 8: @Los Angeles Chargers: I don’t like this spot – at all. Taking on the defending Super Bowl champs, then flying to L.A. on a short week to face another physical team in Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers is not ideal. The Chargers will be coming off a home game. It also doesn’t help that, if anyone knows how to defend J.J. McCarthy, it’s the guy who developed him in college. We hang in there, but in the end, the Chargers’ relentless ground game will set up some big Justin Herbert passes to close it out. Chalk this one up to fatigue, coupled with a strong opponent.

Los Angeles Chargers: 24

Minnesota Vikings: 17

(5-2 overall) (0-1 Division) (2-1 NFC) (3-1 AFC)

Week 9: @Detroit Lions: How much of the Lions’ success was due to Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn? That’s the question. I’d argue Detroit has too much talent to slip that far, and their floor is probably 9 wins. However, I believe there’ll be added vulnerabilities on both sides of the ball. Campbell is a good coach, but not good enough to compensate for the coaching losses. They’ll be a playoff team, but not the well-oiled machine they’ve been over the past 2 seasons. Oh, and after 4 straight losses at Ford Field, we’re due. We come off the mini-bye and put together an impressive performance. It’ll be close, but we’ll take it.

Minnesota Vikings: 31

Detroit Lions: 26

(6-2 overall) (1-1 Division) (3-1 NFC) (3-1 AFC)

Week 10: Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are good. Really good. Well-coached and capable of blowing anyone out on any given Sunday. Their thorough dismantling of a legit Lions team in 2023 still lingers. I’m just not there (yet) to pick us here. Lamar Jackson. Derrick Henry. Strong (if not great) defense. Thanks to a great Flores game plan, we’re right there late in the 4th quarter. Unfortunately, it’s not enough. Henry breaks one to run out the clock and close it out.

Baltimore Ravens: 24

Minnesota Vikings: 21

(6-3 overall) (1-1 Division) (3-1 NFC) (3-2 AFC)

Week 11: Chicago Bears: After Week 1, the theme of the week is revenge. J.J. McCarthy proclaims a new sheriff in the NFC North, tossing 4 TD passes. Flores is prepared for Ben Johnson’s bag of tricks. The defense smothers Caleb Williams all game and creates multiple turnovers. Balance returns to The Force.

Minnesota Vikings: 35

Chicago Bears: 13

(7-3 overall) (2-1 Division) (4-1 NFC) (3-2 AFC)

Week 12: @Green Bay Packers: I expect the Packers to be about who they were last year: good, potentially a Wild Card team, but nothing spectacular. Winning at Lambeau is never easy, however, regardless of how good the Packers are. The Packers ran out of clock last year; if the game had gone another 5 minutes, we’d probably have lost (after being up 28-7 at halftime). I’m on the fence with this one. OK, I’m convinced: We win (albeit not easily, at all). Let’s say a McCarthy to Addison TD pass to win it with 25 seconds left. That works.

Minnesota Vikings: 24

Green Bay Packers: 23

(8-3 overall) (3-1 Division) (5-1 NFC) (3-2 AFC)

Week 13: @Seattle Seahawks: I like Sam Darnold and will fondly remember the terrific (regular) season he had in Minnesota. I wish him all the best. Then again, I wish I could play the guitar like Eddie Van Halen, too. Doesn’t mean it will happen. Sadly, I think Seattle will have a rough go of it in 2025, and that Darnold will struggle mightily without KOC, Jefferson, Addison, et al. This one should be a win, with Darnold looking more like the late-season Lions/Rams version than the earlier season “WTF is this!?” form.

Minnesota Vikings: 31

Seattle Seahawks: 10

(9-3 overall) (3-1 Division) (6-1 NFC) (3-2 AFC)

Week 14: Washington Commanders: I’m a huge fan of Jayden Daniels. The Commanders shored up their o-line and added Deebo Samuel. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if they’re the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. Yeah, I’m unfortunately building to something. This could be one of those games where you expect a shootout and the opposite occurs. Flores limits Daniels as much as you can, but he makes enough plays in the 2nd half to leave U.S. Bank Stadium with a close win. Let’s hope we get an opportunity for revenge in January.

Washington Commanders: 20

Minnesota Vikings: 18

(9-4 overall) (3-1 Division) (6-2 NFC) (3-2 AFC)

Week 15: @Dallas Cowboys: People snickered when the Cowboys passed on sexier candidates to stay in-house with Brian Schottenheimer. People laughed when the Eagles hired Nick Sirianni, too. I expect a bounce-back season from Jerry’s bunch. I was hoping KOC would ditch Mike Zimmer’s tendency to come into 1 or 2 random games every season flat as a pancake and/or poised to play down to an opponent. Sadly, that hasn’t been the case (so far). Think the Cowboys and Colts games in ’22, the Jags, Titans games last year, etc. I can see that here. We get down early courtesy of some 3 and outs and a fluky turnover or 2 and go into catch-up mode. Sadly, we fall short. The good news? We get this type of game out of our system.

Dallas Cowboys: 24

Minnesota Vikings: 21

(9-5 overall) (3-1 Division) (6-3 NFC) (3-2 AFC)

Week 16: @New York Giants: After a 2-game losing streak, someone will have to pay. Enter the Giants, who could legit be 1-13 at this point (look at their schedule!!!). It’ll officially be Jaxson Dart time for the G-Men, with Brian Daboll updating his resume. Jaxson Dart may have the coolest QB name until someone named T.D. Pass comes along, but Flores doesn’t care. He channels Sensei Kreese, goes all Cobra Kai, shows no mercy, and makes MetLife Stadium his dojo. Sam Howell sighting!

Minnesota Vikings: 42

New York Giants: 10

(10-5 overall) (3-1 Division) (7-3 NFC) (3-2 AFC)

Week 17: Detroit Lions: I expect this to have significance for playoff seeding and/or deciding the NFC North crown. I had us win at Ford Field, so I’m not picking us to lose at home. With J.J. McCarthy gaining experience every week, and Flores’s defense (particularly the corners) hitting their stride. Detroit is the known entity; margins for improvement are limited. We get revenge on the Lions this year, not only for Week 18 in 2024, but for going 1-6 beginning with that dreadful December 2021 loss that likely sealed Zimmer’s fate. You know, the one where Detroit came in 0-10-1. T.J. Hockenson grabs a late TD over Kirby Joseph to win it. Oh yeah, that works.

Minnesota Vikings: 28

Detroit Lions: 24

(11-5 overall) (4-1 Division) (8-3 NFC) (3-2 AFC)

Week 18: Green Bay Packers: Let’s say we need this one, as do the Packers, for a potential Wild Card berth. The same logic applies here as the week prior – i.e., we’re better later in the season, and won on the road previously. This one will be tough, as most division games are, but we send the Packers home with another loss (and possibly knock them out of the playoffs). That would be an ideal end to the regular season, right?

Minnesota Vikings: 30

Green Bay Packers: 26

(12-5 overall) (5-1 Division) (9-3 NFC) (3-2 AFC)

So, there you have it. After a deeper dive, I found another win: 12-5. Works for me! This should be good enough to take the NFC North and maybe even flirt with the #1 seed.

Of course, the betting line of over/under of 8.5 wins is comically insulting. I get uncertainty with McCarthy, but he’s not performing in a vacuum. He’s playing for KOC, the guy who turned Sam Darnold into Dan Fouts. His supporting cast is among the most talented in the league. His defense is led by Brian Flores, who’ll limit opposing offenses. Given all this, McCarthy can’t (at a minimum) match the season Bo Nix had last year? C’mon now.

The NFL seems to agree, as they gave the Vikings 7 nationally televised games. However, they did hedge their bets somewhat, as 4 of them are in the first 5 weeks of the season.

Final Thoughts

Bill Parcells famously said, “You are what your record says you are.” At a 30,000-foot level, that’s true. You play who you play, and you should be judged on nothing but the outcome of those games – no excuses. It’s the only thing that matters. Strength of schedule is a thing, however. We don’t get to 14 wins last year with this slate. Will Levis is not Lamar Jackson; Mac Jones is not Joe Burrow. We trade a 5-12 Jets team for the 11-6 Chargers. Two fewer wins is the result of more daunting AFC opponents and dates with Philadelphia and Washington. However, in the end, it leaves a more talented Vikings team battle-tested and prepared to do real damage in the playoffs.

I’m expecting big things.