Brian Flores in Year 3: A Closer Look

In terms of Xs and Os, I gravitate towards the defensive side of the ball. I’m a fan of the innovators; the proactive rather than reactive, and schemes that dictate how the offense responds, not vice versa. Seeing them on the schedule, film sessions included an equal measure of expletives and Advil. The Bill Belichicks, Buddy Ryans, Dick LeBeaus, etc.

Brian Flores is my kind of defensive coordinator.

Heading into Year 3, let’s look at the history, challenges, and expectations that await the 2025 Minnesota Vikings defense.

A Quick History: “The Patriot Way”

One of the greatest mysteries in NFL history is why Bill Belichick’s coaching tree hasn’t produced anywhere near the success of his mentors, Bill Parcells, Bill Walsh, and others. It’s quite barren. Of course, not as barren as our trophy case, missing Halas and Lombardi awards since January 9, 1977 — our last Super Bowl appearance. Elvis was still alive. In the Heartbreak Hotel, Vikings fans not only occupy the Presidential Suite, but every floor minus the basement bathroom. We’ll rent that out to the Lions.

But I digress.

For 15 years, Flores learned “The Patriot Way.” Rising from scouting assistant all the way to defensive play caller in the Patriots’ Super Bowl 53 victory (holding Sean McVay to 3 points), you’d be hard pressed to find a more valuable learning experience. Recent shenanigans aside, a quick glance at Belichick’s resume makes one’s head spin. As the New York Giants’ defensive coordinator, he ate freakin’ Joe Montana’s lunch: 3-0 in the playoffs, holding the runner-up GOAT to 59% – 552 yds – 1 TD – 2 INT – 68.6 Rating. Oh, and to 19(!) total points. His game plan for stopping the Bills’ vaunted K-Gun offense is literally in the Hall of Fame. In New England, he famously turned the “Greatest Show on Turf” (31.4 ppg) into a run-of-the-mill Lifetime made-for-TV movie (17 points) in Super Bowl 36. The aforementioned humbling of hotshot McVay.

This must be mentioned as it’s impossible to discuss Flores without this context. Don’t take my word for it. He has spoken of the importance of spending years under Belichick’s tutelage. In doing research, I found a fantastic article by none other than the Daily Norseman’s own Warren Ludford (@wludford) on this topic shortly after Flores was hired. Yeah, go read that.

Something Old, Something New

Belichick’s innovations regarding hybrid “amoeba” fronts, disguised/mixed coverages, and positionless defense to counter modern spread concepts and heavy personnel packages played an influential role in Flores’s defensive success.

That being said, it’s essential to stress that Flores has used this foundation to create something unique at the NFL level. While the historical data supports his reputation as a blitz-heavy play caller, the incorporation of key elements of Pat Narduzzi’s six-man front/zone variation-based defense at the University of Pittsburgh made the rapid defensive turnaround in 2023 possible.

Let’s not forget how bad things were when Flores was hired. Owing to an exhausted scheme, poor drafting, and an aging roster, Zimmer’s defense crashed out worse than Milli Vanilli. Sadly, those performances were all too real. A well-intentioned if mismatched Ed Donatell may have grabbed the baton, but he ended up handing a winning lottery ticket to Daniel Jones instead. Square peg, round hole. Points-per-game ranking these years? 29^th, 24^th, and 28^th. Yuck. Those stats may be defensive, but to Vikings fans, they were highly offensive.

Flores arrives and we immediately drop to 13^th. Why? Innovation. Risk-taking. What other defensive coordinator could oversee a defense that overwhelmingly led the NFL in blitzes and 3-man rushes? All while setting the pace for frequency of zone coverage? Counterintuitive? Yes. Belichick-esque? Absolutely.

Fast forward to 2024. The additions of high-impact, versatile free agents such as Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman paid immediate dividends. Together, they were instrumental in the Vikings ranking 3^rd in pass rush win rate and 4^th against the run. Moreover, this allowed Flores to strengthen and reinforce schematic improvements to enhance the statistical bottom-line:

• 1^st in turnovers
• 1^st in 4^th down conversion rate
• 2^nd in rushing yards allowed
• 3^rd in EPA/play
• 4^th (tied) in sacks
• 4^th in 3^rd down conversion rate
• 5^th in point per game against

Speaking of, here’s another great Warren Ludford article from last October on this topic (along with an accompanying video from Thinking Football). It’s a stellar primer on how Flores uses blitz packages and unique wrinkles in Cover 2 variants, Quarters, Palms coverages, etc. to maximize chaos and confusion for opposing QBs.

Oh, how I love this stuff.

Continued Progress in 2025, But…

The 2024 “Front 7” free agent class was so phenomenal that replicating it will prove challenging. The additions of Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave are expected to address a critical vulnerability – i.e., interior pressure rate. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the highest pass-rush grade by a Vikings interior lineman last year was Harrison Phillips at 60.0. The most pressures came from Jerry Tillery with 17. For context, in 2023 Hargrave recorded an 86.5 pass rush grade and 64 pressures alone. Allen is a 2-time Pro Bowler with 42 career sacks and 118 QB hits in 109 career games. Jonathan Bullard and Tillery combined have 18.5 sacks and 65 QB hits in 212 games. Yeah, we’re improved here – a lot. If the stars align – i.e., relatively good health, Dallas Turner’s ongoing development, etc. – I think we could reach 60 sacks. Then again, I also thought Troy Williamson could fill in adequately for a departed Randy Moss.

Where the issues may arise is in run defense. In limited action last year, Allen (8 games) and Hargrave (3 games) had PFF run defense grades of 41.3 and 44.7, respectively. That falls below the 2024 grades of Phillips (54.8), Tillery (51.8), and Bullard (63.4). Injury-limited sample sizes may have skewed the sample negatively – Hargrave logged a slightly improved 51.4 in 2023, for example – but you’d be hard-pressed to make a case we’re improved here. That being said, as noted, we were 2^nd best in the NFL in rushing yards allowed last year. I’m confident Flores can handle this without much worry.

If there is concern, however, it’s in the secondary. Turnovers are weird. They’re coached and stressed repeatedly, but often a product of fortuitous circumstances that can’t be replicated year-to-year. In 2023, we had 11 interceptions; last year, we led the NFL with 24. Sure, some of this can be attributed to more knowledge and comfort in a system, but not all of it. Turnovers can be the ultimate deodorant, masking issues underneath the surface. There was a small bit of that with the 2024 secondary.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Vikings had the 4^th worst average target separation in the NFL at 3.8 yards, while 45% of red zone plays occurred in the 4^th quarter. Some of this may be attributed to age-related realities, as Harrison Smith (35), Stephon Gilmore (34), and Shaquill Griffin (29) saw considerable snaps. We were also 28^th in passing yards allowed, but better (12^th) in touchdowns given up. We landed in the middle-of-the-pack in plays-per-drive (15^th) and yards-per-drive (14^th). Were these numbers aided by a high number of turnovers that won’t happen again? Possibly, even likely.

In the end, however, excellent coaching, sound situational football, and veteran savvy won when it mattered most. In addition to the noted Top 5 rankings in 3^rd and 4^th down conversion rate and points-per-game, the Vikings also finished 4^th in points-per-drive.

Unfortunately, some of that savvy is gone. Bringing back Smith and Byron Murphy, Jr. was huge, but losing the experience of Gilmore, Griffin, and Cam Bynum is not something you can quantify on a stat sheet. You trust them to be where they’re supposed to be and to execute coverage responsibilities with precision. This is of paramount importance when dealing with the complexities and nuances of the scheme Flores runs.

There is optimism. Prior to his injury, Mekhi Blackmon’s 71.8 coverage grade led him to be named to PFF’s All-Breakout Team last summer. Newcomer Isaiah Rodgers has already faced the most pressure-packed situations imaginable – and performed brilliantly. One would have confidence that his 76.0 PFF grade in limited snaps (329) would translate to a larger role. Theo Jackson impressed to the point of being a priority signing ahead of free agency with the futures of Smith and Bynum up in the air. Jeff Okudah’s talent has never been in doubt; if anyone can unlock it, it’s Flores.

The Expectation

There will be growing pains in the secondary. The nature and severity of which will likely be influenced by the (expected) improved interior pass rush efficiency over 2024. Regardless, Flores will certainly work to ease the transition through new coverage wrinkles and subsequent confusion – but that can only work for so long. It’s all about schematic comfort level, and how quickly it can be uniformly achieved. Adding a cornerback or safety at #24 in this week’s NFL draft does nothing to change the calculus.

In the end, I do expect this unit to be a well-oiled machine by November.

Why?

Brian Flores.

Side Note: I’m not much of a social media guy, but I’m thinking about creating a Threads and Twitter/X account to share more real-time takes on our beloved Minnesota Vikings. I’ll pass it along. In the meantime, I’ll see what’s cookin’ on AOL Instant Messenger.