What Hope Is There For the Wild Against the Vegas Golden Knights? – Minnesota Wild

After the Minnesota Wild clinched their playoff spot on Tuesday, the FanDuel Sports Network flashed a graphic across the screen. The stat? Most Western Conference playoff appearances over the last 11 years, and the Minnesota Wild were first with nine. 

It’s a stat that’s simultaneously impressive and meaningless, like Tracy McGrady leading the NBA in scoring on a 21-61 Orlando Magic team in 2004. Of the Western Conference’s 16 teams, Minnesota is one of five without a Conference Finals appearance. They’ve won two playoff rounds during that span, or just one more than the expansion Seattle Kraken in their lone trip to the postseason.

There’s not much reason to think Minnesota will stop its decade-long run of playoff futility. MoneyPuck has the Wild pegged at a 32.3% chance of advancing to the second round, the lowest of any team in this year’s playoffs. And worse, you can understand why. The Vegas Golden Knights are two years removed from winning the Stanley Cup. They have Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, and their giant blueline helps them be the heaviest team in the NHL.

Meanwhile, the Wild are three days removed from squeezing into the playoffs, needing a tying goal with 20.9 seconds remaining to dispatch the Anaheim Ducks at home. Minnesota finished the season scoring under half the goals and generating under half the expected goals at 5-on-5, while Vegas was a top-six team in both categories. For those who feel that size becomes a determining factor in the playoffs, it’s worth noting that Minnesota is the lightest team in the NHL.

The Wild also played a first-round series against the Golden Knights in 2021, and the Wild lost in seven.

Fans in the State of Hockey are — justifiably — wondering why they should expect something different. After all, this is by and large the same team that lost in the first round to Vegas in 2021, St. Louis in 2022, and Dallas in 2023.

What’s different?

Admittedly, the differences are subtle, and they might not be able to overcome the overall talent gap between Vegas and Minnesota. However, there are three major differences between this year and years past.

An MVP* On Their Side

This is perhaps controversial, but the Wild are entering this series with the best player on the ice: Kirill Kaprizov. While you’d expect this to be the first time this has happened, it was the case in 2022, when Minnesota lost to the Blues. Kaprizov had 108 points in the regular season and a series-high seven goals in six games.

They lost, blowing a 2-1 series lead. So what if Kaprizov’s the best player in the series?

It’s because Kaprizov wasn’t just an elite player in 2024-25. He was arguably the best in the NHL before getting injured. Thanks to him playing exactly half the season — 41 games — the math becomes real easy on this. Just double his totals and see where he lands on the NHL leaderboards:

Goals: 50 (second behind Leon Draisaitl)
Points: 116 (tied for second with Nathan MacKinnon, behind Nikita Kucherov)
5-on-5 Points: 62 (second behind David Pastrnak)
Shots: 290 (fifth behind Pastrnak, MacKinnon, Brady Tkachuk, Zach Werenski)
Standings Points Above Replacement: 8.0 (third behind Draisaitl, Thomas Harley)

As good as Kaprizov’s been, we’re seeing him at perhaps the height of his powers. That’s a big difference.

Health For Key Players

In the 2023 playoffs, Joel Eriksson Ek was limited to 19 seconds against the Dallas Stars because of a broken leg. We also saw a version of Kaprizov recovering from a lower-body injury. Kaprizov was a non-factor in the series, with one goal and zero points. While Kaprizov might not be at 100%, he did have two goals, four points, and 17 shots in the four games he returned for, while looking more or less like Kaprizov.

Meanwhile, Eriksson Ek had a four-goal game against San Jose and the season-saving goal against the Ducks. He looks good and healthy, which bodes well for Minnesota up the middle. A healthy Eriksson Ek gives Minnesota a 1-2 punch at center (with Marco Rossi), their best since Eric Staal and Mikko Koivu in 2016-17. And those aren’t the only key players they have healthy.

In 2017, the Wild acquired Marcus Foligno because they viewed his defense and physicality as a difference-maker in the playoffs. That’s rarely been the case, and health is a likely culprit. His bruising play style isn’t just punishing for opponents, it’s also for himself. In 2022 and 2023, he wore down at the end of the season and wasn’t himself for the playoffs.

Now he’s healthy and heating up at the exact right time. With three goals and seven points in his final nine games, Foligno is as responsible as anyone for dragging Minnesota over the finish line. Having these three forwards healthy simultaneously bodes well for the Wild.

A Power Play Ringer

Assuming we believe The Athletic’s speculation, the Wild that Vegas will face in Game 1 of the playoffs isn’t one they faced in the regular season — or, for that matter, one that even existed in the regular season.

If and when Zeev Buium steps into the lineup, he changes the dynamic of the Wild’s power play, at the very least. Buium may only be 19, but he’s an extraordinary prospect, has experience in high-stakes games, and has a rare ability to manipulate defenders on the power play.

Or as Kaprizov said after practice, “He’s really good.”

The Wild need help on the power play. They were 20th in power-play percentage this year (20.9%), going against the NHL’s second-best Golden Knights power play (28.3%). The power play also has been a major stumbling point in virtually every playoff series they’ve had in their last nine trips to the postseason.

Wild Power Play% By Playoff Series, 2014 to 2023:

2014 vs. Colorado: 13.6% (3-for-22)
2014 vs. Chicago: 11.8% (2-for-17)
2015 vs. St. Louis: 25.0% (4-for-12)
2015 vs. Chicago: 27.3% (3-for-11)
2016 vs. Dallas: 25.0% (4-for-16)
2017 vs. St. Louis: 16.7% (3-for-18)
2018 vs. Winnipeg: 23.1% (3-for-13)
2020 vs. Vancouver: 13.6% (3-for-22)
2021 vs. Vegas: 18.2% (2-for-11)
2022 vs. St. Louis: 16.7% (4-for-24)
2023 vs. Dallas: 18.2% (4-for-22)

Total: 18.6% (35-for-188)

Is Buium enough to turn the tide? Minnesota’s had many great defensemen come through over the years: Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Matt Dumba, and Brock Faber, to name a bunch. However, few have been a true X-factor on the power play. The Wild have also never come into the postseason with a true trick up their sleeve. Having a ringer who could (possibly) solve their biggest playoff flaw might make a difference this time. We’ll see starting Sunday.