No one said that being a football writer isn’t a perilous task. Quite the opposite is true.
Several months ago, I published a list of specific Vikings predictions. At the time, they made sense, at least in the mind of your humble author. A full season has now passed and the prediction piece has … aged poorly. Consider this a mea culpa, an acknowledgement of how far that piece fell short.
Vikings Predictions Gone Wrong
Precise Prediction #1 — Dallas Turner Gets to 8 Sacks in Less than 500 Snaps
Burned for betting on young talent with plenty of upside.
In the end, Mr. Turner didn’t offer the efficient pass rushing that I was anticipating. Instead, the rookie from Alabama snagged 300 defensive snaps and just 3 sacks. Meanwhile, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel proved to be tremendous as the top pair of edge rushers.
Does Turner explode as a sophomore? Given the draft investment, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will be looking for a huge step forward.
Precise Prediction #2 — The Vikings Run More than 450 Times
Thank goodness for this prediction.
Minnesota seemed committed to running the football more and they delivered, finishing with 457 attempts (tied for 14th in the NFL with the 49ers). It’s a step forward given that 2023 involved running the ball 393 times (28th) and 2022 involved running the ball 404 times (tied for 27th).
One final thought: the Philadelphia Eagles — the eventual champions — led the NFL with 621 rushing attempts. Maybe the modern NFL can still allow for success when a team to commits to running the ball.
Precise Prediction #3 — Jaquelin Roy Starts at Least Nine Games and Clears 500 Snaps
OK, this one was way wrong.
As a rookie, Roy showed some promise, which included a slick swim move that he used to get into the backfield to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. Partner those moments of promise with the team’s weakness at the position (defensive tackle) and the simple fact that Minnesota traded up in the draft to acquire him. Reason for optimism, right?
Nope. Roy didn’t even make the team. Of all the predictions, the Jaquelin Roy take was the worst.
Precise Prediction #4 — Justin Jefferson Averages at Least 16.0 Yards per Catch
Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson are capable of doing this:
Partnering a strong-armed passer with a receiver who thrives at generating explosive plays seems like a match made in yards-per-catch-average heaven. And, to be sure, Mr. Jefferson had a nice season. He finished as a 1st-Team All Pro behind his 103 catches, 1,533 yards, and 10 touchdowns.
The problem? His catches went for an average of 14.9 yards.
Precise Prediction #5 — Minnesota Allows Less than 65% of Passes to be Completed
Maybe a partial point?
The Vikings allowed 65.1% of passes to be completed into their coverage. My thinking was simply that a second season of Brian Flores alongside improvement to the personnel (both the pass rushers and corners) would lead to stingier coverage numbers. And, in fairness, there was an improvement. Flores’ debut season involved 70.3% of passes being completed on his defense; that number dropped down to 65.1% in Flores’ second season as the DC.
Shave off a mere 0.2% and there would have been another correct prediction. But, alas, that’s not how things worked out.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter, as a co-host for Notes from the North, and as the proprietor at The Vikings Gazette, a humble Vikings Substack.