Vikings-Lions preview, predictions: Can Minnesota go into Detroit and snatch No. 1 seed?

The scriptwriters really did it this time. This is the ultimate grand finale.

On Sunday night, the Minnesota Vikings will head to Ford Field to face the Detroit Lions. It’s winner-take-all from a regular-season standpoint. The NFC North title and the No. 1 seed both hang in the balance.

These are two 14-2 teams, two squads led by authentic coaches with rosters full of talent. How will it play out? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: The clock. It needs to be ticking faster because I cannot wait much longer. Games like these are what it’s all about. It’s two battle-tested teams in prime time on national television. It’s an electrifying crowd. It’s high stakes. It’s good football. Justin Jefferson said Thursday, “I’m excited. Oh, I’m excited. For sure. That’s without a doubt. I love these games. Sunday night. For the No. 1 seed. In their stadium? I love that.” He laughed, almost like it couldn’t get any better. Truth is, it’s hard to get much better than this. Jefferson said he’ll have a hard time sleeping Saturday night, and he’s not alone. The anticipation is debilitating.

Krawczynski: Everything. Seriously, what is not to love about this matchup? Division rivals. Best records in the NFC. The top seed in the playoffs on the line. High-scoring offenses. Great coaches. Hook it right up to my veins and give me ALL of it. Earlier this week, I’m not sure the gravity and historical significance had totally hit me. But now it has. I can’t wait to see how these two teams attack each other with so much to gain — not to mention the very real possibility that they could see each other again in the playoffs. I’m ready for it.

“These are going to be two really, really good football teams playing and it’s going to be a flat-out battle.”

📺: https://t.co/dDgT1LAgHH pic.twitter.com/AiWPNhmjZy

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 31, 2024

Biggest concerns

Lewis: The Lions offense. Detroit is first in the NFL in success rate and points per drive. The Lions have scored 50 points more times than they have been held below 20 points. There are no holes. Quarterback Jared Goff is playing at an elite level. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs is as dynamic as they come. They have a burner in Jameson Williams, a smooth route runner in Amon-Ra St. Brown, a well-rounded tight end in Sam LaPorta and ancillary pieces like Tim Patrick and Brock Wright. The offensive line is one of the league’s best, and coordinator Ben Johnson is as sound a designer as there is. They’re creative. They adapt. They attack you where you’re weak. They score touchdowns in the red zone. They convert third downs. They go for it — and convert — on fourth downs. This is one of the toughest tests in the NFL, and the Vikings and defensive coordinator Brian Flores know they have their hands full.

Krawczynski: That Kevin O’Connell and Wes Phillips try a little too hard to match Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson in the creativity department. O’Connell should be the coach of the year for everything he has done this season. He’s been incredible both from a game plan/preparation standpoint and connecting with his players and getting them to buy what he’s selling from a culture standpoint. My one quibble is that he can sometimes get a little too cute with his play calling: a halfback pass here, a flea-flicker there. I’m not against getting wild sometimes, but the timing of the shots he takes sometimes seems questionable. The Lions love to do crazy things. They faked a reverse to tackle Penei Sewell last week for crying out loud! KOC wanting to beat the Lions at their own game could be a temptation that he has to fight with the whole league watching.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: The Vikings passing game versus the Lions secondary. How is Detroit going to cover Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Jalen Nailor? The Lions have played more man coverage this season than any other NFL team, and the Vikings have the highest success rate in the NFL against man coverage. If the Lions play zone, can they generate enough pressure to make quarterback Sam Darnold uncomfortable? Detroit is averaging one of the highest blitz rates in the NFL in the last four weeks, and Darnold has the highest efficiency against the blitz of any quarterback not named Lamar Jackson. What can the Lions do to keep Amik Robertson, Brian Branch and Terrion Arnold from getting exposed down the field?

Krawczynski: Jahmyr Gibbs versus Blake Cashman. The David Montgomery injury was a crusher for the Lions given his importance to everything they do on offense. But a silver lining has been that it only means more touches for Gibbs, who is as dynamic as any back in the league. He is going to be everywhere for Detroit on Sunday. Containing him will certainly fall on more defenders than just Cashman, but the linebacker has been so important against the run and the pass. He has been all over the field all season long, and there is no doubt he’ll be chasing Gibbs on Sunday night.

Most interesting storyline

Lewis: I’m going to use this space to talk about the most interesting aspect of this game to me. Both of these teams have a distinct chemistry, a special feel to them. These Vikings can sometimes feel like a high school football team in terms of how connected they are, and the same can probably be said for Detroit in recent years. It’s fascinating and almost poetic to see that these are the two teams battling it out for the No. 1 seed. The team that wins this game may be the one capable of withstanding the most, and that may be the closest group, the one that refuses to flinch. So much of the national coverage across the NFL is about individual players and coaches, but this is a perfect representation of the concept of team.

Krawczynski: I took some heat in the comments for this last week, but I still believe it. A loss Sunday would not be a death knell for the Vikings’ Super Bowl hopes. Obviously, a win Sunday night would make their road to the Super Bowl much easier. Two home games versus three road games? It doesn’t take a genius to see which is preferable. But I also believe that whoever loses this game still has a real opportunity to come out of the NFC. There’s too much parity in the conference. There is not one matchup that I think the Vikings couldn’t win, road or home. There is also not one matchup that I think the Vikings couldn’t lose, road or home. So a loss for the purple Sunday night, while damaging, would only slightly diminish my belief in them in the playoffs.

How these teams match up from a data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness and success rate for efficiency:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 31, Lions 29. This is the inverse of the first matchup. It just feels right given the universe we’re living in. One sneaky aspect of the game is who the Lions are going to keep in the backfield to pass protect. This is one of Gibbs’ few weak points. I also think special teams could play a massive role in this game. In the end, I think the Vikings passing game will be too overpowering.

Krawczynski: Vikings 37, Lions 36. I don’t know, man. Flip a coin. I give the Vikings the slightest of edges because of all of the Lions’ injuries on defense. I don’t have a ton of confidence in the Vikings defense to hold the Lions down. They have never looked worse, in my opinion, than they did in the first matchup against Detroit. This could be a “whoever has the ball last” kind of game.

(Photo of Andrew Van Ginkel sacking Jared Goff: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)