As I’m sure you’re aware of by now, the Detroit Lions could clinch the NFC No. 1 seed by Monday night. The scenario is simple: first, they need the Green Bay Packers to defeat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon (4:25 p.m. ET on FOX — nationally televised). Then the Lions need to defeat the San Francisco 49ers on “Monday Night Football.” That’s it.
Any other outcome, and both the NFC North and the No. 1 seed will be decided in Week 18 when the Lions take on the Vikings.
Detroit has taken care of business all year, but in a high-competitive division, they have not gotten very much help from other outcomes. Does that finally change this week?
Today’s Question of the Day is:
Will the Packers finally give the Lions some help by beating the Vikings?
My answer: I think they will, and I’ll put this as simply as possible:
I think the Packers are a better team than the Vikings.
When you look at some all-encompassing statistics, the two teams are both undoubtedly good and undoubtedly evenly-matched. The Packers are third in DVOA, the Vikings are sixth. The Packers are eighth in EPA/play and fourth in EPA allowed/play. The Vikings are 10th and first, respectively.
But if you narrow these stats from Week 10 and beyond—to get a grasp of how these teams are playing right now—it highlights just how hot the Packers are.
Since Week 10, the Packers are:
- 1st in overall DVOA
- 3rd in offensive DVOA
- 2nd in defensive DVOA
- 3rd in EPA/play
- 4th in success rate
- 2nd in EPA/play allowed (defense)
- 7th in success rate allowed
Meanwhile, the Vikings rank:
- 8th in overall DVOA
- 13th in offensive DVOA
- 9th in defensive DVOA
- 9th in EPA/play
- 8th in success rate
- 7th in EPA/play allowed (defense)
- 9th in success rate allowed
I know the Packers don’t have much motivation to win—they’re only fighting for seeding between five and seven—but this is the NFL. Playoff teams don’t take a week off. Give me the Packers by a touchdown.
How do you think the game will play out? Vote in the poll below and share why in the comment section at the bottom of the page.