The Vikings have been near-invincible all season with a 13-2 record tied with Detroit atop the NFC North. If Minnesota caps the sweep of Green Bay, it still could finish as the division champ and No. 1 seed in the NFC.
So this game should be great, and sportsbooks expect it to be a coin flip, based on Minnesota’s -112 moneyline odds and the fact it is favored by just a -1.5 spread at FanDuel Sportsbook and other top PA sportsbooks. That makes player-prop betting a potentially more valuable prospect.
Best prop bets for Packers vs. Vikings in NFL Week 17
Josh Jacobs under 72.5 rushing yards (-113) – FanDuel
Aaron Jones anytime touchdown (-135) – FanDuel
Jayden Reed over 49.5 receiving yards (-115) – BetMGM
Jordan Addison over 58.5 receiving yards (-113) – Caesars
Jordan Love over 248.5 passing yards – DraftKings
Sam Darnold over 11.5 rushing yards (-110) – bet365
Josh Jacobs under 72.5 rushing yards (-113)
Where: FanDuel Sportsbook
Why: Jacobs is fourth in the NFL in rushing (1,216) and averaging 81.1 yards per game. But he has been held to fewer than 70 rushing yards in three of Green Bay’s past four games, including his 13-carry, 69-yard performance in the Packers’ 34-0 drubbing of New Orleans on Monday night.
The Vikings are one of the stingiest teams in the NFL against the run (87.1 rushing yards against per game), sitting second only to the Baltimore Ravens. They are tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns against (7).
Jacobs only had 51 rushing yards on nine attempts in the teams’ first meeting. If you agree that this showdown will be a shootout between two great passers, Jacobs likely will not even get to 65 rushing yards let alone 72.
Aaron Jones anytime touchdown (-135)
Where: FanDuel Sportsbook
Why: Jones leads the Vikings in rushing TDs (5) and is third on the team behind Justin Jefferson (9) and Jordan Addison (8) for all-purpose TDs (7). Jones has scored in three of Minnesota’s past five games and has scored five touchdowns at U.S. Bank Stadium this season.
This is a revenge game since Jones spent his first seven seasons in Green Bay, and he did not score in the teams’ first meeting. Addison vultured a rushing touchdown from Jones on an end-around in the teams’ first meeting, but Jones has two receiving TDs too.
The Packers are allowing 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game, and no other Vikings player has more than one rushing TD this season, which means Jones is the clearest bet for a rushing TD.
Jayden Reed over 49.5 receiving yards (-115)
Where: BetMGM Sportsbook
Why: Reed has emerged as Green Bay’s No. 1 receiver, since he leads the Packers in targets (69), catches (52), and yards (803). He is averaging 53.5 receiving yards per game and had the game of his career in their first meeting, posting seven catches for 139 yards and a touchdown.
Reed has failed to top this prop in seven of his past 10 games. But with Minnesota’s stout run defense, Reed and tight end Tucker Kraft will likely need to have big days for Green Bay to stay in the game.
Minnesota is giving up the second-most receiving yards in the NFL (269.5), and this number is lower than competing books, which set the Over/Under at about 53.5. The weather conditions inside the dome will be conducive to a big passing day. Reed may top this by halftime.
Jordan Addison over 58.5 receiving yards (-113)
Where: Caesars Sportsbook
Why: Addison is a clear No. 1 receiver who happens to be a No. 2 due to Justin Jefferson. He has been on a burner too by surpassing 50 receiving yards in five of his past six games and had 72 yards on just three catches in the teams’ first game.
Green Bay may be 16th in the NFL in receiving yards against per game (228.9), but it will have its hands full with Jefferson, Addison, Jones, plus tight end T.J. Hockenson.
Jefferson’s receiving prop is in the 87.5-yard range, which we can recommend taking. But with Addison averaging 62 yards per game, and him averaging six targets per game, his prop has a lower bar to clear.
Jordan Love over 248.5 passing yards
Where: DraftKings Sportsbook
Why: Love barely broke a sweat on Monday night against the Saints, but the Vikings pose a unique challenge for Green Bay’s balanced offense. Fortunately, Love has been lighting up the Minnesota defense by posting at least 250 passing yards in two of his three career starts against them.
Green Bay fell behind the game script in the teams’ first meeting, which is why he set a career-high for completions (32), attempts (54), and passing yards (389) in its two-point loss. With the potential for Jacobs to run into the brick wall which is the Minnesota run defense, Love may need to win the game himself.
Plus, this is not a high bar to clear, especially with Minnesota’s porous pass defense and the fact Love has topped 245 passing yards in six of his 13 starts this season.
Sam Darnold over 11.5 rushing yards (-110)
Where: bet365 Sportsbook
Why: Darnold was renowned for his mobility while extending plays in college and has found that freelancing ability in Minnesota. He has at least 11 rushing yards in nine of his 15 starts, including his five-carry, 11-yard performance against the Seahawks on Sunday.
Darnold has already set a career-high in rushing attempts (61) and has 205 rushing yards – he is 18 yards shy of setting a new career high in single-season rushing yards, which he set in 2021 with the Carolina Panthers. He had 15 rushing yards on seven carries in the teams’ first meeting this year.
Green Bay is allowing 102.5 rushing yards per game, and Darnold is second on the team in attempts (61) and third in yards behind Jones and Cam Akers. With Jones’ rushing prop set at 65.5, and Akers’ at 15.5 yards, Darnold posting about 15 rushing yards seems not only possible but likely.