It’s time for a little math lesson to go along with an NFL playoff picture breakdown for the Seattle Seahawks.
Yes, losing badly to the Green Bay Packers while Geno Smith suffered a (thankfully, not serious) knee injury really sucked. But Seattle still can make the playoffs by winning out, and indeed with the right set of outcomes could clinch the NFC West in Week 17. If you’re here to say “Seattle has no shot to make the playoffs” then feel free to click on other content, because this article is not for you.
Today we are focusing on one specific scenario that is contingent upon the Seahawks beating the Minnesota Vikings, losing to the Chicago Bears (seriously), and the Los Angeles Rams winning against the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals. If the Seahawks beat the Rams in Week 18, that would put both teams at 10-7, and the top four tiebreakers in a division race would not separate them.
Division Tiebreakers
- Head-to-head (Seahawks and Rams would be 1-1).
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division (both would be 4-2)
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (both would be 8-6)
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference (both would be 6-6).
So what happens when those tiebreakers are exhausted?
That’s where “strength of victory” comes in.
Brian Nemhauser aka Hawkblogger noted the value of beating the Vikings but NOT the Bears.
The Seahawks path to the playoffs almost certainly requires a win against the Rams, but the next two games are not equal.
Beating the Vikings would give the Seahawks a strength of victory tiebreaker over Rams even if they drop the Bears game. Beating CHI, lose to MIN does not.
— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) December 17, 2024
If you use the ESPN playoff machine, Brian is 100% correct that Seattle would have the SOV tiebreaker. However, this is also a dynamic stat and can change depending on the W-L records of the teams beaten.
Unlike non-divisional opponents, SOV is actually easier to determine when comparing two teams from the same division. Under the parameters previously suggested in the article, we can compare which teams the Seahawks and Rams have beaten.
Seattle Seahawks wins (under hypothetical scenario)
Minnesota Vikings
Los Angeles Rams
Denver Broncos
Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals (2x)
San Francisco 49ers (1x)
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams wins (under hypothetical scenario)
Minnesota Vikings
Buffalo Bills
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals (1x)
San Francisco 49ers (2x)
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets
New England Patriots
Las Vegas Raiders
Note: As 99-percent-sure noted in the comments, divisional sweeps count as double in the SOV tiebreaker, so the Rams would have a sweep over the 49ers and the Seahawks would have one over the Cardinals. The article has been amended for clarity.
You might be inclined to calculate the total win percentage for Seattle and Los Angeles. This isn’t necessary. Focus only on the non-common opponents (plus Seattle having an extra win over Arizona and LAR having one more win over the 49ers) and that’s all that matters; think of it like simplifying a math equation by cancelling out equal numbers/variables.
Seahawks’ non-common opponent wins: Dolphins, Broncos, Falcons
Rams’ non-common opponent wins: Saints, Raiders, Bills
Seahawks common opponent division wins: Cardinals +1
Rams common opponent division wins: 49ers +1
Calculating percentages is not required since the number of teams involved for the Seahawks and Rams is equal. Miami, Denver, Arizona, and Atlanta have a combined 29 wins, whereas the Saints, Raiders, 49ers, and Bills have only a combined 24 wins. All the Seahawks need if for the Dolphins/Broncos/Falcons/Cardinals quarter to be at least five games better over the remainder of the season than the Saints/Raiders/Bills/49ers in order to lock up the SOV tiebreaker. The Saints and Raiders play each other, which is an advantage to Seattle knowing one of those teams cannot win out.
This is also why beating the Vikings is so important and why losing to Minnesota and beating the Chicago Bears does very little for Seattle. Chicago’s terrible record makes it impossible to overcome an SOV tiebreaker.
The Seahawks were burned by this tiebreaker last season
The reason why the Seahawks missed the playoffs in 2023 was an inferior SOV to the Green Bay Packers. In fact, we wrote about it prior to Week 18! Not having enough quality wins put them out of the playoffs after all other tiebreakers with Green Bay were identical.
Everything I just wrote could be rendered moot if, say, the Rams lose to the Cardinals (and thus can’t win a division tiebreaker if they lose to the Seahawks) or the Seahawks lose their next two games, but what I outlined is not implausible.