None of those teams would be a walkover, particularly since they would have the home-field advantage, but let’s say the Vikings would probably prefer not to play the Rams (a proven team that already beat them once this season) or Tampa Bay (strong interior pass rush and underlying stats that suggest they are better than their 7-6 record). Seattle and Atlanta would be more preferred opponents, though we might have a different opinion of the Seahawks after the Vikings play in Seattle a couple weeks from now.
But to a certain degree, that is beyond his control. Sure, his play will dictate some of it. The Vikings’ path, though, will have a much greater impact. Two home games (as the No. 1 seed) vs. three road games is a completely different conversation (and part of the reason Detroit is given a 21% chance of winning the Super Bowl compared with 5% for the Vikings).
I get that winning the first Super Bowl in franchise history would be a significant reason to re-sign Darnold, but the particular circumstances of this season make that more difficult. Ultimately, he should be judged on his performance and relative cost far more than the question of whether or not the Vikings made a playoff run.